Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,058$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59,383.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,774$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,525.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,525.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,193$ on 2020-07-06

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $287,290$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,670.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,670.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,321$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,243.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,243.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241,594$ on 2020-07-06

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $251,789$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(8.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,652.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(238,652.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,388$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,561.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,561.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,025$ on 2020-07-06

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,819$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,522.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,522.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,869$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,913.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,709$ on 2020-07-06

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,061$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,783.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(101,783.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,433$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(956 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,260.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,260.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,628$ on 2020-07-06

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $205,597$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,772.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(190,772.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,923$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(8.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,973.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,973.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98,230$ on 2020-07-06

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,870$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,177.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(48,177.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,147$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,028.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,028.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,536$ on 2020-07-06

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,531$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(6.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,121.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(412 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,689.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,689.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $426$ on 2020-07-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malta recovered 97%
Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 91%
Germany recovered 91%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 79%
Hungary recovered 64%
Belarus recovered 52%
Poland recovered 26%

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(199 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{648.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(648.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-06

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-06

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,994$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(688 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,895.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,895.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-07-06

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,079$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,483.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,483.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $607$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{590.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(590.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $337$ on 2020-07-06

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $198,064$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(6.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,635.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(184,635.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,022$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,738.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,738.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,882$ on 2020-07-06